(David Mdzinarishvili/REUTERS)

Misery. A mother and child in the ravaged Georgian city of Gori, where at least 17 people were killed at the weekend when Russian jets bombed apartment blocks.

This is not good. Russia has attacked the democratic country of Georgia, brutally devastating that small nation of 4 million, it is believed, to show the world and the former Soviet republics that they’re next. And to grab hold of the precious gas pipeline that feeds Europe.

Lt. Gen. W. “Jerry” Boykin and I spoke briefly about it Sunday evening. He is scheduled to be with us Monday night on my radio program to talk about his career (see post below) and his book Never Surrender. Gen. Boykin has Pentagon contacts and will tell us what he knows about Russia’s invasion of Georgia, and what it portends.

So what are doing to help Georgia which is outnumbered and overpowered by Russia? What can we do to come to answer its cries for help? Not a damn thing. ThreatsWatch reports:

“Given the stakes, the United States has called for a moratorium on all armed hostilities. In a statement issued by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, the U.S. urged “an immediate ceasefire to the armed conflict in Georgia’s region of South Ossetia” and for Russia “to cease attacks on Georgia by aircraft and missiles.”

[…]

“Georgia’s status as a U.S. ally further complicates matters. Approximately 130 American military trainers are presently stationed in the country, and upwards of 1000 Marines and soldiers had billeted at the Vaziani military base in July to train Georgian troops. Meanwhile, a contingent from Georgia is currently serving alongside allied forces in Iraq.”

What are our presidential candidates saying? Not surprisingly, Zero-Bama wants to negotiate and mediate. McCain is flexing rhetorical muscle.

Is this a history replay? Stalin? Hitler? 1938.

Will Congress return to Washington to address this dangerous development? What will the media report? What’s the United Nations planning on doing?

As THIRDWAVEDAVE put it, “The whole world is on fire. And where exactly is our Congressional leadership? Eating ribs at an election BBQ fundraiser or partying in Beijing?”

Or trying to hawk “Know Your Power”, a book whose author is expert at abusing hers.

Stratfor Intelligence wrote the following report two days ago:

Given the speed with which the Russians reacted to Georgia’s incursion into South Ossetia, Moscow was clearly ready to intervene. We suspect the Georgians were set up for this in some way, but at this point the buildup to the conflict no longer matters. What matters is the message that Russia is sending to the West.

Russian President Dmitri Medvedev summed this message up best: “Historically Russia has been, and will continue to be, a guarantor of security for peoples of the Caucasus.”

Strategically, we said Russia would respond to Kosovo’s independence, and they have. Russia is now declaring the Caucasus to be part of its sphere of influence. We have spoken for months of how Russia would find a window of opportunity to redefine the region. This is happening now.

All too familiar with the sight of Russian tanks, the Baltic countries are terrified of what they face in the long run, and they should be. This is the first major Russian intervention since the fall of the Soviet Union. Yes, Russia has been involved elsewhere. Yes, Russia has fought. But this is on a new order of confidence and indifference to general opinion. We will look at this as a defining moment.

The most important reaction will not be in the United States or Western Europe. It is the reaction in the former Soviet states that matters most right now. That is the real audience for this. Watch the reaction of Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Nagorno-Karabakh and the Balts. How will Russia’s moves affect them psychologically?

The Russians hold a trump card with the Americans: Iran. They can flood Iran with weapons at will. The main U.S. counter is in Ukraine and Central Asia, but is not nearly as painful.

Tactically, there is only one issue: Will the Russians attack Georgia on the ground? If they are going to, the Russians have likely made that decision days ago.

Focus on whether Russia invades Georgia proper. Then watch the former Soviet states. The United States and Germany are of secondary interest at this point.

We’re keeping a close watch on what’s happening in Eastern Europe. The news reporting has been minimal over the weekend, but a few sites with good info can be found at:

The Belmont Club
Threats Watch
Counterterrorism Blog

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