Mitt vs. Rudy = Fred?
It must be galling to the other two GOP front-runners that all Fred Thompson had to do is talk about “testing the waters” about a presidential run back in early summer to zoom to the top of the credible national polling. Just as it had to be a relief to them that Fred didn’t take the plunge back then, and caused even greater consternation by zooming back to the top when he did finally announce a month ago.
With Ready Freddie “taking cuts,” as it were, you would think that Mitt Romney, at the very least, would be taking “primary” aim at him in order to have the conservative decks cleared for a final showdown with Rudy Giuliani. I mean, Romney’s reputation is as a brilliant problem-solver and business whiz, right? So you’d think that he, of all people, would not go for the jugular of the perceived top guy without securing his right flank, correct?
You’d think wrong, dude. And while Romney arguably landed some blows on “America’s Mayor” as to who was more economically conservative, though certainly nothing close to a haymaker, Rudy’s shop didn’t just sit there and take it. I’d say they gave as good as they got (which is another way of saying that both men had to govern left of Republican center because they led vastly left of center civic entities). This was bad for Romney, both because he’s behind Rudy AND Fred nationally, and because Team Giuliani did a nice bit of work bloodying Mitt without FDT having to so much as open his mouth.
Which makes this Ed-cited development all the more intriguing:
Mitt Romney still leads in Iowa but Fred Thompson, a relative newcomer to the presidential race, has emerged as his nearest competitor in a new Des Moines Register poll of likely Republican caucus participants.
Mike Huckabee and Rudy Giuliani are in a close fight for third place in the Iowa Poll taken over three days last week. …
Thompson, a former Tennessee senator who officially entered the race for the Republican nomination a month ago, grabs second place in the new poll at 18%. The poll was conducted while he was finishing his second campaign trip to Iowa last week.
Huckabee, a former Arkansas governor who demonstrated surprising strength in the Iowa Republican Party’s straw poll in August, has moved up in the pack by claiming the support of 12% of likely caucus participants.
Romney has all but lived in Iowa (and New Hampshire) 24/7 all year in order to fulfill his strategy of using early primary/caucus victories to trampoline himself into perceived “inevitability”. It’s not usually a GOP strategy because of the party’s tradition of succession, with seemingly each cycle being somebody else’s “turn” (the mindset that gave us Bob [shudder] Dole in 1996), but with that mentality on the other side of the aisle for a change, the ‘08 Republican race is genuinely wide open, and given to such a logical plan of attack.
There is, however, a sports metaphor that may be applying itself in Iowa: “peaking too soon”. With the public clearly less than enthused about the ever-lengthening presidential pre-season, it may be Fred Thompson who has executed an “end-around” play by eschewing what may turn out to have been eight extraneous months and entering the race when its relevance is actually beginning to kick in.
The proof, as they say, is in the pudding. Thompson has enjoyed a small national lead over the past month, but national primary polling is largely an abstraction. Here now is evidence of the strength of a candidate who has visited the Hawkeye state - what, twice? - skipped the vaunted Ames Straw Poll back in August, and yet is within a ten-spot of Mitt “I bleed ethanol” Romney a full three months before the Iowa Caucuses.
Those are three months in, which, of course, Fred could fall flat on his face, starting at tomorrow’s latest GOP group hug. But if I had a warehouse full of Tums and two places to ship it, I’d be sending it to Team Romney, along with a sober recommendation that Mitt start recognizing who the true top guy in this race really is, and directing his fire accordingly.
Something tells me that particular business will be picking up significantly forty-eight hours from now.
October 9th, 2007 at 12:53 am
Yabba Dabba Doo - Fred Joins the Debate
This is a long post so bear with me.
Former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson doesn’t need to have a good debate performance Tuesday night. He needs to KNOCK THE COVER OFF THE BALL. He needs to beat the rest of the field BY TEN TOUCHDOWNS.
The Thompson campaign is wisely playing the expectations game.
“We think that we’ll hold our own, but obviously every other candidate on the stage has been going to these debates all year long. They’ve already gone through their preseason. This is our first scrimmage,” said Todd Harris, a Thompson spokesman. “The most important thing for us is for Fred’s message and answers to connect with Republican voters and that has been our focus.”
With all due respect, this is not the preseason and it is not a scrimmage. If you want to stay with sports metaphors, Thompson was a contract holdout and missed the entire training camp and pre-season. But this is the pros and it is time to put up or shut up or perhaps more appropriately, win or go home.
Thompson was going to announce in July, then August and then in time for the New Hampshire debate. He missed all those self-imposed deadlines because of campaign staff shake-ups and fundraising that while respectable, fell far short of expectations. His stump speeches and other media appearances have fallen short of expectations as well. This is Thompson’s first exposure on the national stage that isn’t scripted by writers for Law and Order.
Based on my reading of background questions from various polls, I get the sense that, to use an old political phrase, his support is a mile wide but only an inch deep. Without a great debate performance, I believe a lot of that pond is going to dry up.
”All his missteps and his laid-back style of campaigning is taking a toll on the early enthusiasm with which his candidacy was received.”
According to Dick Morris writing for The Hill that Fred is Fading, Thompson’s numbers among likely Republican voters are falling. Not precipitously but falling none the less and that is not a good sign. It is especially not a good sign when it coincides with the calendar which indicated that more and more voters are actually focusing on the race.
Thompson also needs a great debate performance to mollify hard-line conservatives over his support of McCain-Feingold. Given the vitriol aimed at Senator McCain on pro Fred blogs and other political sites over McCain-Feingold it will be interesting to see how Thompson’s full throated support will play out with his supporters. As John Gizzi writes in a recent article in Human Events…
Fred Thompson finally made clear his position on the statist campaign finance restrictions embodied in the McCain-Feingold bill. And conservatives are clearly not going to be pleased.
When the former star of TV’s “Law and Order” series and newly-minted presidential candidate spoke to reporters on the porch of the Grand Hotel here, I asked Thompson whether he was proud of his role in enacting the McCain-Feingold campaign finance reform legislation in ‘01.
“Yes,” replied the former Tennessee senator without hesitation. “You will recall that the central part of the legislation was getting rid of soft money [from the political process].”
Fred Thompson either needs to win the Michigan Debate and win it big or he needs to hope that there are no rotund operatic sopranos warming up their vocal chords
October 9th, 2007 at 9:07 am
Judging The Debates
CNN believes “The main event during Tuesday night’s Republican presidential debate in Michigan is Fred Thompson’s debate debut.”
John Gibson on the Fox News Channel believes the anti-Republican bias of debate co-moderator Chris Matthew is the story, “How in the world can NBC put on a fair debate with a moderator like Matthews?”
When the debate starts, smart Republican voters will not care about the endless candidate trivia, or campaign stump theatrics. In order to make a realistic assessment of candidate’s beliefs and values, Republican voters will look for factual information. The sideshows of Thompson’s first debate and Matthew’s bias are inconsequential. The often snide and elitist Chris Matthews will be taken for what he is. Thankfully, we won’t see Wolf Blitzer asking candidates ludicrous questions to be answered a show of hands.
The pertinent subjects for the debate are 1. the war on terror, 2. the economy and how we compete with Asian and European nations, 3. preserving our culture and values, 4. excessive taxes and spending in Washington. The voters will look for the candidate with the experience and ethics covering each of these subjects.
Who will win this and future Republican debates? A forward looking, positive candidate who speaks clearly, in complete sentences, and who is impressive in explaining how he will approach these problems will carry the field. After all, the Republicans are really selecting a candidate that presents a clear choice and credibly to oppose Hillary Clinton on these key issues next year.
October 10th, 2007 at 8:22 am
The Republicans Debate in Michigan
Thompson spoke in generic terms and played it safe. Romney and Giuliani clearly outshone the rest of the field while sparring over the economy and their conservative roots. The other candidates were just plain dull, though Huckabee and Hunter made good points. Once again, Ron Paul must have forgot to take his medication. That being said, the best one-liner was the Thompson smack down of Chris Matthews, “That’s your opinion, Christopher”
Now, Romney and Giuliani were the best-prepared Giuliani plied his New York tough guy shtick to no avail when called on the facts by Romney, “Baloney! Get your facts straight Governor.” Of course, Giuliani will never win on the line-item-veto issue; he got hammered.
Romney, well versed on the Michigan economy, was much clearer and spoke with confidence and optimism. His line about Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm. (“I figured she was going to put a tax on the debate before it was finished.”) was classic and got good response from the crowd
Somewhat disappointing was the lack of reference to the greatest danger to our economy;
the democrats and Hillary Clinton. Romney and Giuliani did their part, but the rest of the field seemed to have forgotten the bigger picture. We must keep taxes low, we must bring spending under control for the survival of the economy. Kudos to Romney and Giuliani for attacking Hillary on these issues. That is why they are the front-runners.
The after debate polls mean nothing really. The Ron Paul supporters spammed up the works again, and CNBC and CBN closed their polls down. No one really believes 72 percent of viewers think Ron Paul won anything. The MSNBC poll is so skewed due to the Ron Paul spammers that it’s irrelevant; though, if you throw out the Ron Paul numbers, Romney wins hands down.
October 16th, 2007 at 8:56 am
Romney “Grapples With Suspicions About Religion” ?
Every time I believe that the New York Times cannot get more biased, they out do themselves. Michael Luo in today’s edition still claims that Mitt Romney is having problems with conservative Christians. Gee, Richard Land of the Southern Baptist Convention, Robert R. Taylor (a top official at Bob Jones University, the Evangelical Christian school with a history of anti-Mormon rhetoric), Rev. Rick Warren, Rev. Jerry Falwell, Mark DeMoss, Jay Sekulow, and yes, even Pastor John Hagee do not think so.
Yet, Luo does not claim to have spoken with any of these Evangelical leaders. His only source seems to be Oran P. Smith, president of the Palmetto Family Council, a conservative Christian group in South Carolina.
The over-analyzed Mormon issue and “complaints” against Romney’s sparkling resume’ and family life are getting tedious. Indeed, there is quit a bit of weeping, wailing and gnashing of teeth. The idea of a presidential candidate who believes in “being honest, true, chaste, benevolent, virtuous, and in doing good to all men” is implausible to liberals and the MSM.
The man does not curse, not even a damn or a hell. His family life has been impeccable. He has (quietly) given much of his time to service in his church and community. His business acumen is incomparable, there never being a report of corporate misdeeds, an unseemly tryst, or misconduct in hiring or HR concerns.
And it’s driving the liberal press crazy! Hordes of “investigative” reporters have been digging, literally, through the Romney family’s trash, past school records, business records, family utility records, even who the sons have dated.
John McCain, meanwhile, has suddenly become a Baptist, leaving the Episcopal faith behind. Rudy Giuliani claims to be a Catholic and Fred Thompson says he goes to church, sometimes, maybe, but neither shows a single sign of their professed dogma.
Now, Michael Luo of the New York Times claims Mitt Romney has the problem with Evangelical Christians. What?
November 13th, 2007 at 10:15 pm
you say that mormonism stuff is getting old?
if you were african american, you’d be singing a different tune. maybe to whites the mormonism thing is “over,” but not to everyone:
MARK OF CAIN RACISM: http://www.realmormonhistory.com/god&skin.htm
and romney backs that up in many other ways, didn’t go to the minitory issues debates, believes in a “white blue eyed god” and leaves jews completely out of the picture, and the bible too.