Mitt vs. Rudy = Fred?
It must be galling to the other two GOP front-runners that all Fred Thompson had to do is talk about “testing the waters” about a presidential run back in early summer to zoom to the top of the credible national polling. Just as it had to be a relief to them that Fred didn’t take the plunge back then, and caused even greater consternation by zooming back to the top when he did finally announce a month ago.
With Ready Freddie “taking cuts,” as it were, you would think that Mitt Romney, at the very least, would be taking “primary” aim at him in order to have the conservative decks cleared for a final showdown with Rudy Giuliani. I mean, Romney’s reputation is as a brilliant problem-solver and business whiz, right? So you’d think that he, of all people, would not go for the jugular of the perceived top guy without securing his right flank, correct?
You’d think wrong, dude. And while Romney arguably landed some blows on “America’s Mayor” as to who was more economically conservative, though certainly nothing close to a haymaker, Rudy’s shop didn’t just sit there and take it. I’d say they gave as good as they got (which is another way of saying that both men had to govern left of Republican center because they led vastly left of center civic entities). This was bad for Romney, both because he’s behind Rudy AND Fred nationally, and because Team Giuliani did a nice bit of work bloodying Mitt without FDT having to so much as open his mouth.
Which makes this Ed-cited development all the more intriguing:
Mitt Romney still leads in Iowa but Fred Thompson, a relative newcomer to the presidential race, has emerged as his nearest competitor in a new Des Moines Register poll of likely Republican caucus participants.
Mike Huckabee and Rudy Giuliani are in a close fight for third place in the Iowa Poll taken over three days last week. …
Thompson, a former Tennessee senator who officially entered the race for the Republican nomination a month ago, grabs second place in the new poll at 18%. The poll was conducted while he was finishing his second campaign trip to Iowa last week.
Huckabee, a former Arkansas governor who demonstrated surprising strength in the Iowa Republican Party’s straw poll in August, has moved up in the pack by claiming the support of 12% of likely caucus participants.
Romney has all but lived in Iowa (and New Hampshire) 24/7 all year in order to fulfill his strategy of using early primary/caucus victories to trampoline himself into perceived “inevitability”. It’s not usually a GOP strategy because of the party’s tradition of succession, with seemingly each cycle being somebody else’s “turn” (the mindset that gave us Bob [shudder] Dole in 1996), but with that mentality on the other side of the aisle for a change, the ‘08 Republican race is genuinely wide open, and given to such a logical plan of attack.
There is, however, a sports metaphor that may be applying itself in Iowa: “peaking too soon”. With the public clearly less than enthused about the ever-lengthening presidential pre-season, it may be Fred Thompson who has executed an “end-around” play by eschewing what may turn out to have been eight extraneous months and entering the race when its relevance is actually beginning to kick in.
The proof, as they say, is in the pudding. Thompson has enjoyed a small national lead over the past month, but national primary polling is largely an abstraction. Here now is evidence of the strength of a candidate who has visited the Hawkeye state - what, twice? - skipped the vaunted Ames Straw Poll back in August, and yet is within a ten-spot of Mitt “I bleed ethanol” Romney a full three months before the Iowa Caucuses.
Those are three months in, which, of course, Fred could fall flat on his face, starting at tomorrow’s latest GOP group hug. But if I had a warehouse full of Tums and two places to ship it, I’d be sending it to Team Romney, along with a sober recommendation that Mitt start recognizing who the true top guy in this race really is, and directing his fire accordingly.
Something tells me that particular business will be picking up significantly forty-eight hours from now.







