An Implicit Concession Of Weakness?
Rudy Giuliani announced today in a conference call that his campaign will be skipping the August Ames Straw Poll in Iowa.
I’ll admit, I don’t get into early primary season all that much, all the less so with it starting earlier and earlier and earlier each election cycle. Yeah, I monitor it, and co-live-blogging these gang “debates” is a hoot, but I don’t get into it deep enough to know every in, out, wrinkle, and pucker of the process a year and a half out. Consequently, a candidate skipping a straw poll wouldn’t ordinarly, to me, seem to matter all that much.
Evidently, Ames is different. If you want to be taken seriously in the Iowa Caucuses, you participate in the Ames Straw Poll. It doesn’t matter if you’re running for the nomination unopposed; you do Ames anyway, or you wake up one morning with septicized corncobs in your bed.
Senator McCain had already indicated he’d be skipping the ASP, but his campaign is already in the first stages of rigor mortis; it’s not as though reversing himself on Ames would be the primary season equivalent of “Lazarus, come forth!” But Rudy skipping the ASP does surprise me. You’d think that as the presumptive GOP front-runner, he’d want to make a maximum effort in the poll just to protect that status. Even if he underachieved, that would seemingly do less damage to his nomination chances than not showing up at all.
Unless, of course, he’s destined to get smoked whether he makes an effort or not. Then it becomes a matter of preserving resources where they can be better expended.
Still, it is eye-opening candor about what Rudy’s campaign really thinks of its own viability. Dean Barnett accurately sums up what it all means for “America’s mayor”:
Iowa matters a lot. And Ames matters a lot, because it measures a candidate’s strength in Iowa. By withdrawing from Ames, Rudy has already made a damning statement about his prospects in Iowa….
If Rudy thinks he’s going to lose Iowa, lose New Hampshire, lose South Carolina and somehow still win the nomination, he’s dreaming. And I can’t imagine the campaign thinks a slim lead in the national polls is somehow going to translate into a victory in any of the early states. At some point, Rudy has to engage Fred and Romney on neutral ground and win. Iowa is that neutral ground. If Rudy can’t be competitive there, he’s not going to be the nominee. It’s that simple.
Will the press play down Rudy skipping Ames? With Darth Queeg sinking like a cinder block, Giuliani is the only viable Rockefeller ‘Pubbie left in the race. True, he’s no McCain when it comes to licking the media’s….boots, but as a pro-choicer, he’ll be the only game in town.
