Upside-Down?
I’ve been looking, against my better judgment, for an explanaton as to how the two seemingly least likely GOP presidential nominees in the field (okay, besides Ron Paul) - John McCain and Rudy Giuliani - can possibly be the “front-runners” for the 2008 Republican nomination.
After all, Giuliani is not just “pro-choice,” but pro-Roe v. Wade, and while abortion as an issue is indeed in the single digits, judicial appointments are definitely on the front-burner. Anybody who is pro-Roe is, to put it mildly, highly unlikely to appoint constitutionalists to the federal bench, much less the SCOTUS. And McCain….well, campaign finance reform, the “memo of understanding,” undermining the war via his “anti-torture” grandstanding, and his sweaty embrace of Uncle Teddy on amnesty for illegals pretty much speak for themselves.
So how can these two Rockefeller ‘Pubbies be atop the polls of a party that ostensibly is pining for another Ronald Reagan?
Look no further than the “Never Heard Of Him/Her” column J-Ger noticed in the most recent Gallup survey:
McCain [Unlisted]
Giuliani 6%
Romney 41%
F. Thompson 50%
I’m assuming from the absence of a “never heard of him number” for McCain that his “NHOH” number was even punier than Rudy’s. Compare that and Giuliani’s 9/11-fueled 94% notoriety with Romney’s and Thompson’s comparative obscurity. Then compare the “nominatability” (for lack of a better term) to that of Romney and Thompson based upon issues stances (Giuliani) and trustworthiness (McCain).
It seems to me that once the field gets winnowed down (which shouldn’t take all that much longer), and Romney’s and Thompson’s (once he formally jumps in) visibility - and electibility - rises, we’ll have ourselves a couple of new front-runners, and maybe an honest-to-gosh national ticket.
If the conventional read on the conservative grassroots’ mindset is accurate, that is. If, on the other hand, these polls hold steady through the primaries, the GOP will have become a party I no longer easily recognize. And conservatives will have some tough choices to make on November 4, 2008.
May 28th, 2007 at 3:47 pm
I think the results are more of a case of people (whether they be GOP conservatives, RINOs or Americans in general) wanting a LEADER. I’d say that 75% of Giuliani’s numbers come from the peoples’ respect for his leadership after 9/11 and his actions such as sending the money offered back to the Middle East. Same with McCain - his stance on the War and such has set him apart as a Leader…at least one with conviction.
I think the vast majority of Americans feel we are at a precipice in this country and they are hungry…no…they are STARVING for a true leader. It’s my view that the Dems have no leader present in all of their candidates and the GOP only has one - Giuliani. I believe Fred Thompson could fill the bill but every day he delays entering the race, depletes this image of Leadership.
When it comes down to brass tacks i.e. whether a newly elected POTUS is going to protect this land from Global Islamic Jihad or not - his position on Roe v. Wade falls way down my list of priorities. And believe me, I am very conservative in all respects - but the issue for 2008 is going to be this country’s survival.
May 28th, 2007 at 3:49 pm
Keep in mind that these polls actually poll ALL voters, not just ‘conservatives’… and the Republican Party is a Big Tent Party. Yes, I understand that Conservatives have been the Republican Party’s base for a generation, but the party is full of folks who are Republicans because they cannot abide the reek of the Democrat Party’s base. Conservatives make up the major bloc of voters for the Primaries, but that’s not who the agencies are polling.
If you poll Conservatives, I suppose the name familiarity alone would actually give McCain around 10% approval, 20% for Rudy. There’s a lot to like in those two men, especially that which is covered by the MSM. Most folks, even conservative Republicans, get a large chunk of their news from the MSM. And while the candidates have started the campaign early, it doesn’t follow that the Public is paying any attention to them… the news, yes, the candidates and issues? Not yet. It’s all still emotion now, not thought.
As the players become known, and the Primaries approach, I predict that Thompson and Romney will rise in the polls, McCain will fade dramatically, and Rudy will be right up there, mostly due to the public’s appreciation for his leadership on that awful September day. But it’s too early to read anything from a poll of the general public… they aren’t paying attention yet.
Run a poll, and as one of the questions ask the respondent to answer a question that is known only to those paying attention. Use that to sift out the general public from the currently informed public. Otherwise your sample isn’t going to tell you that much…
May 28th, 2007 at 5:07 pm
Fight4TheRight:
I don’t think thirst for a “LEADER” explains the current poll configuration. Indeed, I’m not even quite sure what you mean by it - George W. Bush fits that description by any conceivable definition, and where is he at in the polls?
It isn’t enough to be a “leader”; you also have to lead in a direction people want to follow, and indeed, be able to convince them to follow if that isn’t a direction in which they want to go. Bush has led stalwartly on the war, but most people have grown weary of following him. He’s led just as stoutly on immigration policy, but nobody wanted, or wants, to go there.
McCain is no leader, because no Republican can trust him. Do you want Kyoto revived? Taxes to go up? The war effort to be hamstrung by bogusly elastic definitions of “torture”? A president whose top priority is “reaching across the aisle”? I thought the GOP grassroots were fit to be tied about Bush’s “New Tone” nonsense. Would they really trust a President McCain whose element is sucking up to the media and their partisan favorites?
Giuliani’s leadership qualities I’ll buy, but only to a certain point. He did spend quite a while waffling on the abortion question, and that’s usually a bigger detriment to a candidate than taking a firm stand one way or the other. But as I pointed out, coming down in favor of Roe isn’t about abortion per se, but about what kind of judges a President Giuliani would appoint. That stance doesn’t fill me with confidence, and I thought judges mattered to the Republican nominating electorate.
I suppose if it came to it I could put my nose in a vise and vote for Giuliani (not McCain, however). But why would the base choose him when there are alternatives (Romney, Thompson) at least as devoid of negative PR baggage who are just as strong on the war as Rudy is?
Mr. Michael’s comments fit in with my basic theory of the press trying to bulldoze their preferred choices on Republican voters. I’d prefer to think that we’d be a bit more immovable than they give us credit for. But then I never thought the Democrats would ever be entrusted with power in their current maniacal mentality with the war still ongoing either, so there may yet be more dismaying surprises in store.
May 28th, 2007 at 7:37 pm
Romney, Thompson, Giuliani. Any one of them could win the election. I like Romney and Thompson best, from what I have seen so far.
May 29th, 2007 at 2:08 pm
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